Quick Fact – As goes January…

Keep your fingers crossed!

Jeroen Blokland Financial Markets Blog

We are only halfway through January, but it doesn’t feel like a fresh start to the new year, now does it? From day one markets looked grim and sentiment turned severely negative. This January feels more like months of struggle, instead. The result? The S&P 500 Index is down more than 7% and if we call the end of January now, it would rank as the third worst starting month since 1950.

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So what does this mean for the rest of the year? Well, there is no real straightforward answer to that question. The good news is that the phrase ‘as goes January, as goes the year’, is mathematically untrue. The table below shows that, on average, the S&P 500 Index managed to eek out a very limited positive return of 0.65% for the rest of the year if January yielded a negative return.

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